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Prediction for CME (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-11T10:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42621/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME first seen to the NE by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-11-11T10:23Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131. Wide opening field lines and a large EUV wave and instance of dimming is visible in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195, along with post eruptive arcades visible in GOES SUVI 131 and 195. The arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-12T18:52Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 19nT at 2025-11-12T18:52Z to about 40nT at 2025-11-12T19:00Z. The magnetic field parameters were previously enhanced due to the interplanetary shock starting at 2025-11-11T22:11Z. An increase in solar wind speed from about 580 km/s to 820 km/s was observed starting at about 2025-11-12T19:45Z after a brief period of unreliably low solar wind speed data which had occurred during the initial shock arrival. An increase in temperature was seen starting at 2025-11-12T19:45Z from about 71,000 K to about 764,000 K. A significant increase in temperature was observed starting at 2025-11-12T21:55Z, which may have been erroneous or unreliable data. A corresponding sudden increase in density was observed at 2025-11-12T19:41Z from about 4 p/cc to a peak value of 24 p/cc at 2025-11-12T19:49Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T18:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T16:50Z (-6.95h, +4.96h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-12T12:58:28Z
## Message ID: 20251112-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20251111-AL-011). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 39 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2025-11-12T07:30Z and 2025-11-12T18:26Z (average arrival 2025-11-12T12:02Z) for 100% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-11-12T11:52Z and 2025-11-12T23:47Z (average arrival 2025-11-12T16:50Z) for 100% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 7-9 range (strong to extreme).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:

The CME event with ID 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Juno at 2025-11-21T12:00Z (glancing blow), BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T18:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T13:16Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T11:51Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20251111-AL-010 and 20251111-AL-011).

This CME event (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001) is associated with an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-11-11_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087/Detailed_results_20251111_102300_ncmes1_sims39_LAHAINA087.txt

Lead Time: 23.03 hour(s)
Difference: 2.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-11T19:50Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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